Bull Case

• Foundational Intelligence company that can revolutionize multiple industries such as medicine, finance, science.
• Open AI plans to introduce a new device that will be an alternative to the mobile phone that is more AI friendly. This is in collaboration with Jony Ives. This could unlock new TAM.

Bear Case

• Open AI is not profitable and has committed to Cap Ex investments far exceeding what it’s current revenue run rate of around 20Bill$.
• Open AI has been losing market share in the AI Search market to Gemini.
• Sam Altman as a leader is a poor communicator. Gets defensive when asked tough questions, unable to clearly bring across execution plans.

OpenAI Financials ( Jan 18 2026 )

70% of Open AI revenue comes from consumers.

Year	ARR	Compute
2023	2 Bill$	0.2GW
2024	6 Bill$	0.6GW
2025	20 Bill$	1.9GW
2030	200 Bill$ ( Nov 2025 est )	~20GW

Ref: https://openai.com/index/a-business-that-scales-with-the-value-of-intelligence/

OpenAI Major Strategic Investments

Investor / Partner	Investment Amount ($)	Date Announced	Ownership / Profit Share Details	OpenAI’s Key Commitments / Use of Funds
Microsoft	$13.75 Billion	2019, 2023, & subsequent rounds	Entitled to a share of profits, capped at a certain multiple (e.g., 10x) of its investment. Recent restructure reports give MSFT roughly 27% equity in the for-profit entity.	Exclusive Cloud Provider: OpenAI’s models run exclusively on Microsoft Azure supercomputing infrastructure. Contracted to purchase an incremental $250 Billion of Azure services.
SoftBank (2025 Round)	Up to $40 Billion (Led Series F)	Mar 2025	Investment linked to a $500B valuation and a restructuring plan to convert OpenAI into a Public Benefit Corporation (PBC).	Funds are used for massive compute spending and R&D.
Early Investors (e.g., Khosla, Reid Hoffman)	$194 Million (Initial funding in 2019)	2019	Receive the first profits until their capital is repaid, and a share of subsequent profits until their return is capped at a very high multiple (e.g., 100x).	Funds were used to transition to the capped-profit model and attract talent.