Invest Alpha

Tesla (TSLA)

Tesla Robotaxi Total Addressable Market

Tesla Robotaxi TAM Global Markets

Metric2025203020352040
1. Global Ride-Hailing TAM (Human + Autonomous)$450–500B$750B–$1T$1.5–2.0T$2.5–3.5T
2. Autonomous Ride-Hailing TAM$0–50B$150–300B$600–900B$1.5–2.5T
3. Estimated Tesla Robotaxi Revenue$0$40–60B$150–300B$400–800B
4. Estimated Tesla Operating Income$0$16–36B$60–150B$200–480B

Tesla Robotaxi TAM First-World Markets (U.S./EU/Australia/Japan/Korea)

High autonomy readiness, high GDP per capita, strong charging infra, favorable regulatory path.

Metric2025203020352040
1. Ride-Hailing TAM (Human + Autonomous)$150–180B$250–300B$450–600B$700–900B
2. Autonomous Ride-Hailing TAM$5–15B$80–120B$250–400B$600–900B
3. Estimated Tesla Robotaxi Revenue$0$25–40B$80–150B$200–400B
4. Estimated Tesla Operating Income$0$10–24B$32–90B$80–240B

Tesla Robotaxi TAM Developing/Third-World Markets (India, SE Asia, LatAm, Africa)

🐢 Slower autonomy adoption, low EV penetration, low per-mile revenue, infrastructure constraints.

Metric2025203020352040
1. Ride-Hailing TAM (Human + Autonomous)$250–300B$450–700B$1.0–1.4T$1.8–2.4T
2. Autonomous TAM≈ $0$20–40B$300–500B$900–1,500B
3. Estimated Tesla Robotaxi Revenue$0$3–7B$30–80B$120–250B
4. Estimated Tesla Operating Income$0$1–3B$12–32B$50–150B

Tesla FSD Total Addressable Market

Tesla FSD TAM Global

Metric2025203020352040
1. Driver-Assistance + Autonomy Software TAM$50–70B$120–180B$200–300B$300–450B
2. Autonomous FSD TAM Only$5–15B$60–90B$150–250B$250–400B
3. Estimated Tesla FSD Revenue$6–8B$15–25B$40–70B$80–120B
4. Estimated Tesla Operating Income$5–6B$12–20B$30–55B$60–100B

Globally, driver-assistance and autonomy software become a large category by 2030, but:

  • Not all markets allow L3–L4 autonomy
  • Many OEMs will release competing systems (Mercedes, BMW, Toyota, Hyundai, GM, Ford, BYD)

Tesla still leads globally in volume EVs but does not capture majority of TAM due to regulatory fragmentation and strong OEM competition.

Tesla FSD TAM First-World Markets(U.S., EU, Australia, Japan, Korea)

Metric2025203020352040
1. Driver-Assistance + Autonomy TAM$30–40B$60–90B$110–160B$150–225B
2. Autonomous FSD TAM Only$5–10B$35–55B$80–120B$150–225B
3. Estimated Tesla FSD Revenue$5–7B$12–20B$30–50B$55–90B
4. Estimated Tesla Operating Income$4–6B$10–18B$24–40B$45–70B
  • Strongest EV penetration
  • Higher-income demographic more willing to pay $99–$199/mo subscriptions
  • U.S./EU/Australia/Japan will approve autonomy features earlier
  • Tesla’s competitive moat is strongest in these markets (largest installed fleet + software advantage)

Tesla FSD TAM Developing Markets

(India, Africa, LatAm, SE Asia, and China — where Tesla is restricted)

Metric2025203020352040
1. Driver-Assistance + Autonomy TAM$20–30B$40–60B$90–140B$150–225B
2. Autonomous FSD TAM Only≈ $0$10–20B$70–120B$100–200B
3. Estimated Tesla FSD Revenue~$1B$3–5B$10–20B$25–40B
4. Estimated Tesla Operating Income$0.8–0.9B$2–4B$8–16B$20–32B

  • China: FSD not permitted due to mapping + data laws
  • India / SE Asia / Africa:
    • low EV penetration
    • low incomes → low FSD subscription conversion
    • inconsistent road conditions slow autonomy validation
  • Local OEMs dominate (BYD, Tata, Mahindra, Geely, SAIC), meaning Tesla’s fleet footprint is tiny

Management Outlook

Cars

  1. Model Y is the number one selling car globally.

Robotaxi

  1. Expanding production as they have now clarity regarding unsupervised FSD performance.
  2. Safety drivers expected to be removed in Austin by end of 2025. Plan to always have a safety driver as the first step in all new cities in case the city has some peculiarities and then remove the saftey driver once they have confidence from the performance.
  3. Robotaxi expected to be operational in 8-10 metros by end of 2025
  4. Robotaxis have completed 6 Bill miles. 250 Mill miles in Austin, 1 Bill miles in the Bay Area.
  5. Aspirational goal of 3 mill units in 24 months.
  6. Cybercab production starts April 2026. (Nov 05 2025 )

FSD

  • V14.1 launched. V14.3 driver should be able to “sleep and wakeup at destination”
  • Elon – next month or two after confirmation on V14 stats, will allow drivers to “text and drive” ( Nov 6 2025 )
  • Reasoning to be rolled out by end of 2025 which will help car drop passenger off and go find the best parking around.

Optimus

  • Has the potential to become largest selling product of all time.
  • V3 to be unveiled in Q1 2026. Optimus 4 in 2027.
  • The fore arm and hand is the biggest challenge for the engineering team.
  • 1 mill unit manufacturing plant to be built in Fremont and 10 mill unit plant in Texas. ( Nov 2025 )
  • Elon sees care of elderly as one of the big use cases. ( Nov 2025 )
  • Cost of production will be 20000$ once you hit 1 million units.

Semi Truck

  1. Production in volume expected in Q2 of 2026
  2. Self driving team is focused on passenger cars, but a lot of the work should be leveraged.

AI

  1. The Tesla driving models are 5% the size of Grok models.
  2. The AI chips in the cars can act as a distributed inference fleet capable of executing AI workloads when not driving.